An underwater volcano named The Axial Seamount has shown growing signs of activity, which could lead to a potential eruption this year. Located 470 kilometers from the coastline it has been extensively monitored – offering scientists a rare opportunity to study it in detail. 1,100 meters tall and spanning a diameter of two kilometers, Axial Seamount is considered one of the most well-studied submarine volcanoes in the world.
A History of Eruptions and Predictive Science
Axial Seamount has a documented history of eruptions, with notable activity recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Its consistent activity and accessibility have made it a focal point for volcanic research. Unlike many volcanoes, where warnings come mere hours before eruptions, Axial has been under continuous observation through advanced technologies, including a seafloor cable system that provides real-time data on seismic activity, ground swelling, and magma movement.
Recent observations reveal that the underwater volcano’s surface has swelled to levels similar to those observed before its last eruption in 2015. This inflation, caused by magma buildup beneath the surface, is a key indicator of an impending eruption. “This is a significant achievement in volcanic science,” said geologist Mark Zumberge from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “Axial’s behavior offers a rare chance to predict eruptions with greater accuracy”.
The Role of Technology and AI in Prediction
Axial’s status as one of the most monitored underwater volcanoes has allowed scientists to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze extensive data collected over the years. By examining patterns in seismic activity and ground deformation from before the 2015 eruption, researchers hope to refine their predictive models for future events.
“We need ideal cases to understand how volcanoes work,” said volcanologist Valerio Acocella from Roma Tre University. “Axial Seamount is a very promising underwater volcano for advancing our knowledge of eruption mechanics”. However, Acocella also cautioned about the unpredictability of volcanic behavior, noting, “There’s always a risk of unexpected activity”.
The Implications of an Eruption
While Axial Seamount poses no direct threat to human life due to its location 1,400 meters beneath the sea, its eruptions provide invaluable insights for underwater volcano study. The frequent activity at Axial, occurring roughly every decade, allows researchers to study the processes leading up to eruptions without the urgency associated with land-based volcanoes near populated areas.
The potential 2025 eruption represents an opportunity to test and improve forecasting models, with broader applications for understanding and predicting volcanic activity worldwide. “This won’t revolutionize eruption prediction overnight,” admitted Acocella, “but each step forward helps us better understand other volcanoes as well”.