The possibility of a recently-discovered asteroid striking Earth has doubled within the past several weeks, according to NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, was initially reported on Dec. 27, 2024. At the time, NASA astronomers calculated that the asteroid had a 1% chance of colliding with the Earth in December 2032. However, in a Feb. 7 blog post, NASA revealed that the chance of collision has since been updated to 2.3%.
And while 2.3% might sound insignificant, Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News that a percentage that high is “uncommon.”
Farnocchia also told the outlet that asteroid 2024 YR4 currently ranks at a three out of 10 on the Torino scale, which is the scale by which NASA categorizes the potential hazard of objects near Earth. He adds that the majority of objects in space rank at zero.